The HS 748 was originally conceived by Avro as an attempt to overcome the anticipated decline in military orders by re-entering the civil aircraft sector. Designed in the late 1950’s the aircraft first flew on 24 Jun 1960. Various improvements were incorporated over the years to increase the payload, improve the aerodynamics and update the engines. Powered by 2 Rolls-Royce Dart turboprops, the 748 had a ceiling of 25,000ft and a range of just over 700 miles when fully loaded with 58 passengers and a flight deck crew of 2.
It was reported in August 2003 that American State Department objections to Israel selling the Phalcon AEW radar system to India had been removed. It is understood that India will pay around $1 billion for 3 Phalcon systems to be integrated onto three Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft operated by the Indian Air Force. This purchase has almost certainly spelt the end for the ASP and it is only a matter of time before this ill-conceived project is finally abandoned for good.
The unmitigated disaster of the Nimrod AEW 3 programme probably stands comparison with any of the other 'great' shambolic defence procurement fiascos, that have caused such embarrassment to the MOD and various governments over the years. It was certainly one of the most expensive and the final bill has probably never been accurately calculated, but even the most conservative estimate of £1 billion takes little account of the damage caused to the reputations of the companies involved. This overview will briefly describe the lengthy gestation of the project, some of the main problems that were encountered and why the whole sorry shambles was finally brought to an end.
So what can be learnt from the Nimrod AEW fiasco? Well, firstly an AEW airframe needs to be large enough to carry the equipment and crew, ideally with something in reserve - attempting to squeeze everything into what was essentially an airframe designed in the 1940's, was bound to lead to problems. Secondly, effective long range AEW radar technology is highly complex, difficult to develop and needs to be updated on a regular basis to remain effective. Unless you have bottomless pockets, it's safer and less expensive in the long run to buy proven American equipment off the shelf.
Amazingly, the collective memory of the Nimrod AEW farce seems to have been completely ignored when it was decided to replace the Nimrod MR2 with the Nimrod MRA4. Astonishingly many of the same mistakes of attempting to once again adapt an airframe designed in the 1940's, have been repeated for the second time - but more on the MRA4 farce at a later date and I only hope the final bill this time around is less than £1 billion squandered on the Nimrod AEW 3.
A contract for 9 development aircraft was placed in Oct 1960 and this was followed by a preliminary order for 11 pre-production aircraft in Jun 1962. It was hoped to fly the first prototype in the autumn of 1963, with delivery of the first pre-production aircraft in 1965. In 1960 the R&D costs had been estimated at £90M, but by the beginning of 1963 this had more than doubled and the schedule had slipped 2-3 years. Development problems with the avionics and the Olympus 22R engine continued and by now the Labour opposition were making it clear they would cancel the project if they were elected.
The TSR-2 and F-111A were in direct competition and General Dynamics, along with the US Government, were keen to kill off the competition. In an attempt to eliminate the TSR-2, General Dynamics and the US Government continually over-egged the performance and under stated costs of the F-111A, when discussing the aircraft to potential customers. This 'miss-information' was quickly picked up by Mountbatten and Zukermann, who were more than happy to quote these figures to any influential politician they encountered, further damaging the TSR-2 cause.
Australia
The most obvious customer for the TSR-2 was Australia. But Australia was keen to establish links with the USA, to replace the dwindling link it had with the UK, through the ineffectual Commonwealth. The USA built on this desire by dangling the carrot of a cheaper F-111A and on 24 Oct 63 the Australians eventually took the bait and ordered 24 F-111A's for delivery in 1967. The aircraft eventually entered service in 1973, six years late at 3 times the original cost - enough said.
Lack of consistent support at the highest levels of the RAF.
There were also severe doubts about the viability of the TSR-2 at the top levels of the RAF. If certain influential people in the RAF were wavering in their support, it's hardly surprising that other people were quick to seize on their remarks and use them to denigrate the aircraft - who follows the sound of an uncertain call to arms?
In the end the politicians had their way and a potentially superb aircraft was destroyed. However, many, many people, both service and civilian, must share the blame for a whole variety of reasons, many outlined above. I have no doubt that had everyone involved had the guts to stick with it and pay the bills, the TSR-2 would eventually have performed to the design criteria. Whether the country at that time could really afford to pay the bills is another matter. Had it entered service it might even have been used in the Falklands conflict, where it could, in theory, have operated from the original runway at Port Stanley - who knows how the presence of a few TSR-2's might have influenced subsequent events.
In the 21st century UAV development is advancing in leaps and bounds as rapid developments in technology allows even more capability to be packed onto a small air vehicle. Most UAVs are designed to conduct general ISR missions, rather than being tailored for a particular single mission, allowing them to be employed in a wide variety of roles, but this wasn’t always the case. Back in the 1980s, before most members of the public were even aware of UAV operations, the US Air Force often issued a requirement for a UAV tailored for a specific mission – a good example is the Teledyne Ryan AQM-91A Compass Arrow designed to photograph the Chinese nuclear test site at Lop Nor. The downside of this policy is generally the small number of UAVs required, which pushes up the cost and if the mission if abandoned, for whatever reason, the requirement for the UAV disappears as well. This is exactly what happened to another ‘black’ programme from the period – the Boeing Condor.
From what can be uncovered about this programme, it appears that back in the early 1980s the USA needed a highly specialised UAV for a classified mission, possibly ELINT. Exactly what this mission was has still not been made public, but I imagine it probably involved North Korea, but that’s just my guess and I made be very wide of the mark. Sometime in the mid 1980s the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), probably acting on behalf of the USAF, NRO or CIA, issued a requirement for a High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAV and, presumably after the usual companies such as Lockheed and Northrop had also submitted their proposals, Boeing won the $300 million contract with it’s first large scale composite design which it named the Condor.
However, the concept of lifting bodies ‘skipping’ of the earths atmosphere continued and today the US is developing the ‘HyperSoar’ which will use exactly this technique. Using a scramjet engine, the HyperSoar is planned to achieve Mach 10 and climb to 130,000ft where the engine would be switched off, then the HyperSoar would slowly descend back into the atmosphere where the engine would be re-ignited for a further ‘skip’. Even today this concept is at the very limit of current technology and it will be many years before a full scale HyperSoar ever enters operational service, if it ever does. It says something about the about the advanced thinking and engineering ability of Dr Eugene Sanger that he could envisage a system in the 1930’s which, despite all the huge advances in aviation and space technology that have taken place over the last 75 years, still remains many years from actual fruition.
Even as the U-2 entered operational service in 1955 the CIA were already drawing up plans for its eventual replacement and this eventually resulted in the delivery of the Lockheed A-12 Blackbird and later the larger Lockheed SR-71. However, Lockheed were not the only company the CIA approached to investigate the U-2 replacement and the other company Convair came up with a proposal that was unusual and innovative for its time and, because it never entered operational service, it remains relatively little known to this day – the Convair Fish and Superfish.
In Aug 1959 Lockheed and Convair submitted their two proposals, the A-12 and Kingfish, to a review panel that consisted of representatives of the Dept of Defence, USAF and the CIA. Although the Kingfish was favoured by some because of its lower RCS, the Lockheed proposal finally won the day, having greater range, a higher max cruise altitude and was cheaper to build. However, what probably won the day for the Lockheed A-12 was that Lockheed had already delivered the U-2, a highly unusual and advanced design, in secrecy, on time and on budget and then the U-2 had then gone on to deliver the required performance in operational service – in comparison Convair had no similar background.
Of course one question will always remain unanswered, if the Kingfish had been selected rather than the A-12, would it have performed as well as the A-12 and of course without the A-12 there would have been no SR-71. In the event Lockheed encountered numerous difficulties in developing the A-12, so it’s reasonable to assume that Convair’s engineers could also have found similar solutions for the Kingfish. The P&W J-58 engines and the complex inlet control system were the real key to the A-12’s ability to cruise at Mach 3+, whether the more conventional intakes on the Kingfish would have delivered the same level of performance remains debateable. Nevertheless, what is beyond dispute is that the Kingfish looked superb for an aircraft designed in the late 1950s and, if the twin tails were canted inboard to reduce the RCS, it could easily pass for an early F-117 Stealth Fighter. It is a great pity that the Kingfish was never built and flown, but nevertheless this design stands the test of time and is a suitable tribute to the skill and foresight of the Convair designers.
Updated 8 Jan 09
The troubled EuroMALE UAV, currently being given the last rights by EADS, should serve as an example to future collaborative European UAV projects of how quickly things can go wrong, how rapidly technology changes and why narrow national interests, particularly if the French are involved, will nearly always prevail over wider European co-operation.
By the 2006 Farnborough International Air Show it was obvious that the EuroMALE was effectively dead and France’s plan to lead various other countries in this programme had been scuppered. It’s unlikely that any new European MALE UAV programme will emerge for some time. Instead it’s likely that a whole raft of different proposals will emerge for collaborative programmes but, whatever the eventual outcome, it’s unlikely that France will be able to impose their national proposals on other nations. Meanwhile, despite all the problems with the Euromale, NATO's premier aerospace think tank, the Joint Air Power Competency Centre (JAPCC) have recently stated that they believe that NATO has a requirement for 50 High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs and 20 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAVs. The JAPCC believes that these UAVs will need to be acquired by the end of 2009 by a collaborative acquisition, but given the history of the Euromale, I imagine almost every NATO member state is already planning how to tailor their own UAV to meet this requirement, rather than investigating possible collaboration with another country, particularly France.
Updated Jan 2007
The Hughes XF-11 was built to meet the same exacting specification as the Republic XR-12 Rainbow. When the USA entered the war, the USAAF lacked a purpose built reconnaissance aircraft and relied on modified fighter aircraft, such as the F-5B a reconnaissance version of the P-38 Lightning and even operated the F-8 Mosquito, licensed built by de Havilland of Canada.
The lack of a purpose built reconnaissance aircraft capable of operating safely over the Eastern Block was to cost the USAF dear in the late 1940's and early 1950's. There is little doubt that the XF-11 could easily have been developed into a highly capable reconnaissance aircraft if the will had existed. Whether it would have been a better or more capable aircraft than the XR-12 is debateable. However, it would certainly have been a vast improvement on the various versions of the B-29 Superfortress that were pressed into service as reconnaissance aircraft because, thanks to the cancellations, nothing else was readily available.
In the early 1990s, the USAF decided to integrate various Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems to ensure that all US Forces would be provided with the appropriate information necessary to successfully conduct military operations. As part of this integration, the Defence Airborne Reconnaissance Office (DARO) issued a requirement for long endurance UAVs with reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition capabilities. This in turn led to the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) overseeing development of a pair of complementary High Altitude Endurance (HAE) UAVs, under their policy of producing Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) versions of each design and then ensuring they perform as advertised. The two designs were the RQ-3A Darkstar, developed by Lockheed Martin & Boeing and the RQ-4A Global Hawk developed by Northrop Grumman – two different designs to meet specific mission criteria. Northrop Grumman’s relatively conventional UAV design enabled the Global Hawk to provide long range & endurance and carry a multi-sensor payload in a low –to-moderate threat environment.
Although the first Darkstar crashed during a test flight on 22 Apr 96, the second Darkstar was modified and later flew successfully. Undoubtedly, some problems had been encountered during the development programme with the flight control system, the command & control system and the stealthy apertures, but these could almost have been expected during the development cycle of such an advanced UAV and were effectively cured. So if these problems had been overcome it seems odd for the programme to be have been cancelled, when the requirement remained extant and these doubts have fed persistent rumours of a follow-on black programme.
Little if anything has been said by Lockheed Martin about the new ‘Super Darkstar’ or Quartz or whatever name it has been given, other than the tacit admission recently by some well placed individuals from Lockheed Martin that the vehicle exists and has been used successfully in operations. They also confirmed that, whilst it cannot carry the same payload as a U-2S, it nevertheless is capable of carrying an LPI synthetic aperture radar as well as infra-red and electro-optical sensors. A number of U-2S pilots reported seeing an unknown high-flying vehicle, operating at or above the height of their own aircraft, whilst flying over Iraq. Lockheed Martin will probably attempt to keep this new UAV out of the limelight for as long as possible. Presumably the USAF have been willing to pay considerably more for this vehicle, compared to the non-stealthy Northrop Grumman Global Hawk, because of its capability to penetrate highly defended airspace undetected and the quality of intelligence it provided.
Updated October 2006
The greatest exponent of the flying wing was John K Northrop who, along with 3 other men, helped found the Lockheed Company. After founding his own company, Northrop continued to experiment with flying wings and successfully flew the N-1M ‘Jeep’ in 1940. The Army Air Force Chief, General ‘Hap’ Arnold encouraged Northrop to investigate whether the flying wing principle could be applied to heavy bomber aircraft.
That the YRB-49A would have made a very effective reconnaissance platform if its stability problems had been resolved is in little doubt. Furthermore, if the ‘stealthy’ characteristics of a flying wing had been identified, the aircraft might have been developed further by burying the pod-mounted engines in the wing. In this configuration, even with the small vertical stabilisers, the YRB-49A would have been very difficult to spot on radar and may well have lead to the development of a B-2 Spirit bomber many years earlier.
The Republic XR-12 Rainbow is in many peoples opinion one of the most graceful aircraft of all time, as well as being probably the most streamlined piston-engined aircraft every built. The Rainbow was built to an exacting 1943 USAAF requirement for a purpose-built reconnaissance aircraft. The requirement specification was drawn up by the photographic Section of the Air Technical Service from recommendations made by Colonel Elliot Roosevelt and called for a very long range, high speed aircraft specifically tailored for photographic reconnaissance. Republic's chief designer, Alexander Kartveli, felt that to achieve the required altitude and speed, over 40,000ft and 400mph, four large pistion engines would be required and selected the Pratt & Whitney R-4360 Wasp Major radial of 3,500hp. The aircraft eventually proved capable of maintaining Mach.8 at 40,000ft.
In the mid 1960s the USA was very keen to obtain photographic intelligence of the Chinese mainland and their nuclear testing area at Lop Nor, situated on a dried up salt lake deep inside China near Xinjiang. Although satellite imagery was just becoming available, as this photo of Lop Nor taken not long after the first Chinese nuclear test on 20 Oct 64 shows, it was unreliable and lacked the image quality of a lower flying aircraft. However, by this time the Russians had already shot down Frank ‘Gary’ Powers in his U-2 and the US government prohibited further overflights of Russia or China by US manned aircraft.